Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.017907 0.020286 0.022867 0.025875 0.029288 0.033040 0.037480
2025-07-27 0.014422 0.017752 0.021678 0.026651 0.032789 0.040127 0.049581
2025-08-03 0.012103 0.015769 0.020342 0.026474 0.034497 0.044658 0.058542
2025-08-10 0.010535 0.014378 0.019398 0.026451 0.036130 0.048985 0.067421
2025-08-17 0.009188 0.013050 0.018302 0.025985 0.036972 0.052176 0.074918
2025-08-24 0.008355 0.012301 0.017862 0.026297 0.038816 0.056795 0.084728
2025-08-31 0.007528 0.011449 0.017159 0.026110 0.039854 0.060268 0.093104
2025-09-07 0.007035 0.011028 0.017023 0.026713 0.042069 0.065609 0.104722
2025-09-14 0.006265 0.010099 0.016018 0.025859 0.041916 0.067259 0.110648
2025-09-21 0.005716 0.009460 0.015393 0.025528 0.042525 0.070105 0.118684
2025-09-28 0.005145 0.008728 0.014549 0.024746 0.042299 0.071529 0.124420
2025-10-05 0.004966 0.008631 0.014730 0.025681 0.045018 0.078052 0.139418
2025-10-12 0.004733 0.008426 0.014724 0.026312 0.047304 0.084090 0.154255
2025-10-19 0.004543 0.008280 0.014805 0.027105 0.049947 0.090988 0.171319
2025-10-26 0.004221 0.007866 0.014374 0.026925 0.050788 0.094689 0.182752
2025-11-02 0.003954 0.007528 0.014048 0.026902 0.051905 0.098967 0.195643
2025-11-09 0.003651 0.007096 0.013511 0.026427 0.052105 0.101512 0.205342
2025-11-16 0.003477 0.006896 0.013391 0.026745 0.053868 0.107198 0.221823
2025-11-23 0.003257 0.006585 0.013033 0.026555 0.054594 0.110881 0.234510
2025-11-30 0.003146 0.006482 0.013072 0.027168 0.057001 0.118137 0.255331
2025-12-07 0.002885 0.006052 0.012421 0.026299 0.056241 0.118798 0.262043
2025-12-14 0.002700 0.005766 0.012040 0.025962 0.056573 0.121761 0.274033
2025-12-21 0.002487 0.005401 0.011467 0.025167 0.055841 0.122372 0.280797